Still no new Prime-Minister


At this time of writing, the election commission hasn’t completed it’s work even if it’s well under way.

As a result, we do not have yet a new prime-minister since the voters didn’t elect a majority government.

For those who do not know the results yet, here is the count:

Party Votes Actual Seats Seats With BenArd
BENARD 1 1.57 2 3
FREEDEM 30 47.24 47 47
MRPT 29 45.67 46 46
PRESENT – Doesn’t count 9
PROG 9 14.17 13 14
RUMP 43 67.72 68 68
TSP 10 15.75 16 16
VOTE IN – BEN… ARD… 1 1.57 2 0
Total 127 + 9 = 136 200.00 200 200

We currently have 2 seat counts, since until the BenArd party pays it’s registration fee, the Chancery is not able to merge the VOTE IN – BEN… ARD… and the BENARD votes and they each get 2 seats, but once it is registered, both votes will be merged to yield 3 seats, giving a 14th seat to the PROG party.

So, who is our Prime-Minister?

With the FreeDem and MRPT away by a single seat and with them unable to get a majority between them (or with the other third parties), it can yield to interesting speculations.

Here are the possibilities, in descending order of probability:

  1. Carlüs Xheraltescu: As leader of the FreeDem, is the best suited to become Senechal since his party got the most votes amongst the members of the previous coalition. If the coalition still stands, the FreeDem, MRPT and PROG parties alone would get 106 (or 107) seats. Since the TSP leader had asked before the election if the TSP could join the FreeDem, Preßeu Zespenat thinks the TSP will join that coalition for a total of 122 (or 123 seats). Even without the PROG party, the FreeDem would get a majority with the MRPT and the TSP (109 seats)
  2. Alexandreu Davinescu: The RUMP didn’t fare well compare to its past, but it is still the biggest party in the Cosa with 68 seats, enough to block amendments to the Organic Law. We know that a RUMP-FreeDem coalition in which the RUMP names the Prime-Minister is pure fiction, but is a RUMP-MRPT coalition completely out of the question? With 114 seats, this uneasy coalition would have a majority but such a convenience marriage is the only real option for Alexandreu to become Prime-Minister. The only other possibility would be for the RUMP to rally the TSP, the PROG and any of the 2 independent parties. Considered the expressed desire for the TSP to collaborate with the FreeDem party, we find that possibility too remote to really consider.
  3. Lüc da Schir: Our current prime-minister could remain in office under three distinct scenarios, the first two being unplausible at best but the last one being the next short as a non Carlüs Xheraltescu prime-minister. Let’s tackle the 2 unplausible ones: If coalition talk fails between the MRPT and FreeDem party for an unforeseen reason (perhaps because the FreeDem dissolved too soon), the MRPT might convince the TSP and the PROG to support it as the main coalition partner, making the point that it is a single party unlike the FreeDem and thus, got the most individual votes. In such a scenario, it would need a support from the other 2 parties that is strong enough to bend the arm of the FreeDem, while keeping them in the coalition since without them, no majority is reached. The second option is even more far-fetched: The MRPT could secretly form a coalition with the RUMP, under the express condition that it, and not the bigger RUMP, would pick the Prime-Minister.

In all theories, Carlüs Xheraltescu will be our next Prime-Minister with Lüc da Schir as Distain, which leaves a third option for Lüc to become Senechal: if Carlüs is no longer able to perform his duties, the Distain would most likely step-up to the office.

Image at the top from Lüc sa Schir

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